Cascading problem in science

October 16, 2007 by Dr. Mc.

The Oct 9, 2007 issue of the New York Times discussed in its Science section a sociological phenomenon called "cascading." Author John Tierney here introduces me to a new term, but it beautifully describes an experience I had as a Boy Scout. Though that was so many years ago, it still burns in my memory that I was so taken in. It was over a merit badge, and it has to do with estimating distances. We were taught a technique for estimating, and then asked to apply the technique for the width of a stream we could not cross. The scout master gave the same assignment to about five of us boys at one time and then went down the row asking our answers. I was the last boy, and as I heard each boy ahead of me agree with the first, I concluded that my answer, far different from theirs, must be wrong. By the time the pointed finger of scout master got to me, I agreed with the answer of all the others. Then he scratched his head with that finger and said, "That’s amazing: Every one of you got it wrong!" He announced the right answer, and it was very close to the one I had swallowed. Too late to get that badge now!

The specific examples given in the article dealt with health, but if the phenomenon is true in one area of science, we should not close our eyes to its reach in all aspects of science. (Life in general, for that matter, but the impact would be so much more consequential in science.)  In the early pages of Icons of Evolution, Jonathan Wells talks of how his training as an embryologist brought him to the realization that the evolutionary parallel argued for embryonic development was flawed, but he assumed that the
evidence in all other fields must be robust. After all: everyone knew it was true. I think the last paragraph of Mr. Tierney’s article could well be applied here:

“’This is a matter,’ he continued, “of such enormous social, economic and medical [make that scientific] importance that it must be evaluated with our eyes completely open. Thus I would hate to see this issue settled by anything that smacks of a Gallup poll.’ Or a cascade.”

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